Thinking about development of multi-channel surveillance and multi-dimensional early warning system of emerging respiratory communicable diseases / 中华流行病学杂志

The world has paid a heavy price for the pandemic of the emerging respiratory communicable disease, so more concern about communicable disease surveillance and early warning has been aroused. This paper briefly reviews the establishment of the surveillance and early warning system of respiratory communicable diseases in China, discusses its future development and introduces the novel surveillance methods and early warning models for the purpose of establishment of a multi-channel surveillance and multi-dimensional early warning system of communicable diseases in the future and the improvement of the prevention and control of emerging respiratory communicable diseases in China.

Association between macroscopic-factors and identified HIV/AIDS cases among injecting drug users: an analysis using geographically weighted regression model / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Drug use (DU), particularly injecting drug use (IDU) has been the main route of transmission and spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) among injecting drug users (IDUs). Previous studies have proven that needles or cottons sharing during drug injection were major risk factors for HIV/AIDS transmission at the personal level. Being a social behavioral issue, HIV/AIDS related risk factors should be far beyond the personal level. Therefore, studies on HIV/AIDS related risk factors should focus not only on the individual factors, but also on the association between HIV/AIDS cases and macroscopic-factors, such as economic status, transportation, health care services, etc. The impact of the macroscopic-factors on HIV/AIDS status might be either positive or negative, which are potentially reflected in promoting, delaying or detecting HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Association between IL-10 gene polymorphisms and the outcomes of hepatitis C virus infection among high-risk populations in Jiangsu province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the relationship between interleukin (IL)-10 gene polymorphisms and the susceptibility or the outcomes of HCV infection among high-risk populations in Jiangsu province.Methods IL-10 gene SNPs were detected in 1555 subjects including 264 self-limited HCV infections.371 persistent HCV infections and 920 healthy controls were selected through Taqman-MGB.Results After adjusted for cofounders as sex,age and high-risk population,data from logistic regression analysis showed that the distribution of IL-10 genotypes among the controls,spontaneous clearances and those with persistent infections did not show much differences.Results from further stratified analysis showed that,at the position of-819T/C,when compared with TT genotype,TC genotype had a significantly increasing chance of self-limited HCV infection among middle-aged,females and paid blood doners (adjusted OR values and 95％ CI were:2.160,1.163 4.011 ；1.693,1.066-2.688 and 4.084,1.743-9.570).It also had a lower risk of progressing to persistent HCV infection among those paid blood doners (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:0.312,0.130-0.747 ).CC genotype had a higher chance of self-limited HCV infection among people underwent blood dialysis (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:2.120,1.071 -4.197).Results also showed a decreased risk of progressing to persistent infection among paid blood doners (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:0.156,0.043-0.566).At the position of -592A/C,when compared to AA genotypc,the AC genotype had a significantly increasing chance of self-limited HCV infection among middle-aged,femalcs and paid blood doners (the adjusted OR values and 95％ CI were:2.176,1.173-4.037；1.659,1.055-2.607;3.704,1.625-8.443) but had an increased risk of persistent HCV infection among females (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:1.525,1.017-2.286).AC genotype showed an increased opportunity to progress to HCV persistent infection among drug users (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:1.845,1.122-3.034) but had a reduced risk of progressing to HCV persistent infection among paid blood doners (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:0.361,0.155-0.841 ).CC genotype had an increased opportunity to self-linited HCV infection as well as having a dccreased risk of progressing to persistent infection among paid blood donets (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:3.125,1.016-9.605；0.218,0.063-0.748).At the position of-1082A/G,AG/GG genotypcs had an increased chance of self-limited infection among blood doners (the adjusted OR values and 95％CI were:3.780,1.620-8.820).Conclusion IL-10-819T/C,-592A/C,-1082A/G SNPs might be related with the susceptibility and the outcomes of HCV infection among populations at high risk.

Study on the spatial distribution of AIDS based on geographic information system in Jiangsu province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of AIDS in every city of Jiangsu province, trying to describe the geographic characteristics of AIDS and to develop a prediction model.Methods Numbers of patients in Jiangsu province were collected, to establish the database for the geographic information system, then setting up a 'risk map' of the disease. Spatial, autocorrelation.Linear spatial analyses were used to study the patients' numbers. Results (1)Results from the autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of AIDS was clustered at some places and was at random on the whole. The results also indicated that the distribution of AIDS in Nanjing was of negative correlation, while that in Suzhou and Wuxi were of positive correlation but in Tongshan, Wujiang, Pukou, Nanjing, Lishui, Wuxi and Suzhou showed seven locations of clusters with disease was more severe in the southern than in the northern parts of Jiangsu province. (3)Ordinary Least Squares method was finally used in the linear spatial regression and the results were: t=-1.045 103 (P=0.299 904); t=-1.443 668 (P=0.153 714) respectively. Conclusion According to the feature spatial distribution of the disease, effective measures should be taken to prevent and to keep the prevalence of AIDS under control.

The application of time series analysis in predicting the influenza incidence and early warning / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>This research aimed to explore the application of ARIMA model of time series analysis in predicting influenza incidence and early warning in Jiangsu province and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of influenza epidemic.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The database was created based on the data collected from monitoring sites in Jiangsu province from October 2005 to February 2010. The ARIMA model was constructed based on the number of weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) cases. Then the achieved ARIMA model was used to predict the number of influenza-like illness cases of March and April in 2010.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The ARIMA model of the influenza-like illness cases was (1 + 0.785B(2))(1-B) ln X(t) = (1 + 0.622B(2))ε(t). Here B stands for back shift operator, t stands for time, X(t) stands for the number of weekly ILI cases and ε(t) stands for random error. The residual error with 16 lags was white noise and the Ljung-Box test statistic for the model was 5.087, giving a P-value of 0.995. The model fitted the data well. True values of influenza-like illness cases from March 2010 to April 2010 were within 95%CI of predicted values obtained from present model.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The ARIMA model fits the trend of influenza-like illness in Jiangsu province.</p>

Dynamic characteristic analysis of HIV mother to child transmission in China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore dynamic characteristics of the HIV mother to child transmission (MTCT) epidemic in China.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>A deterministic dynamic transmission model was used to determine the effect of key parameters on the likely long-term trends of the HIV MTCT epidemic in China. Matlab 7.0 was used to develop the model.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The number of the susceptibles (S), the transmission rate (β), and the screening proportion (α) of HIV positive pregnant women have the greatest impact on the HIV MTCT epidemic in China. The growth of the MTCT epidemic in China could not be controlled only by decreasing the MTCT transmission rate. The prevalence of HIV positive women should be reduced and more pregnant women should be tested for HIV.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) should focus not only on the reduction of HIV transmission rates and incidences of HIV among women but also on the increase of HIV testing for pregnant women. The most cost-effective PMTCT means for China should be investigated in future studies.</p>

Estimation and prediction of the epidemic situation of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Jiangsu province / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>The aim of this study was to estimate and predict the AIDS epidemic situation in Jiangsu province by using a software named Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and then to provide accurate information for making control plans and conducting interventions.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Date were obtained from the comprehensively monitored sentinels of AIDS and venereal diseases (Data were from 28 national monitored stations and 52 provincial stations. From 2003 to 2009, a total of 10 730 000 people had been monitored) as well as project survey and laboratory tests. EPP epidemic model was employed to analyze the prevalence and to predict future epidemic situations.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A total of 830 000 and 1 020 000 people were monitored in 2003 and 2004 respectively, and 8 880 000 more people were monitored in the following 5 years. By the end of 2009, a total of 4103 HIV infection cases had been reported, among which 918 people were diagnosed with AIDS and 432 died. Since 2003, the cases infected through IDU had decreased from 66.84% (262/392) to 16.40% (142/868). However, the cases infected through sex contact had increased from 21.68% (85/392) to 77.40% (672/868). Among these cases, homosexual transmission and heterosexual transmission accounted for 39.10% (339/868) and 38.30% (333/868) respectively. It was estimated that there would be 14 290 HIV/AIDS cases in 2011 which is 18.10% (2191/12 099) higher than that in 2009. The estimated HIV infection rate would be 0.02%.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>EPP prediction showed the AIDS epidemic situation in Jiangsu province had an ascendant trend and the AIDS epidemic situation had demonstrated rapid growth. Therefore, it is necessary to take effective preventive measures to control the spread of AIDS.</p>

Study on the quality of life and its influential factors among HIV positive population / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To study the quality of life and its influential factors among HIV positive population. Methods Quality of life was evaluated among 2608 HIV positive population by WHOQOL (Chinese Version) to calculate the total and four domains' scores of quality of life. Multiple linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the factors and the scores of the four domains and the total score of quality of life. Results Physical,psychological,social,environmental and the total scores of the HIV positive population were 12.96±1.94,11.79± 1.19,13.79±2.44,12.40±1.93 and 51.02±6.03,respectively. Females had a higher scores than males in the four domains and the total score of quality of life. Through a multiple linear regression model,we found that the influential factors would include gender,age,occupation,family conflict and appetite etc. Conclusion People living with HIV had higher scores in social domain,but lower scores in psychological domain,suggesting that psychological intervention should he strengthened.